History of Presidential Conventions: What Happens Next?
1876 Democratic National Convention in St. Louis, Missouri. Image: Wikipedia
HISTORY OF PRESIDENTIAL CONVENTIONS: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
“May you live in interesting times,” goes an apocryphal Chinese curse.
Interesting times, indeed. The recent departure of President Joe Biden from the 2024 presidential race has implications for the race that are both obvious and subtle. But especially, it poses several questions:
- So, what will happen next?
- Is this unprecedented?
- Has this ever happened in the past?
Something similar has happened in American history: a favored candidate, an incumbent president, dropped out before the Party Convention.
This occurred before the Chicago Democratic Convention of 1968 when President Lyndon B. Johnson chose not to seek his Party’s nomination for president.
But never before has a president left a reelection race this close to the Convention and Election Day. Nor has it happened this late in the campaign process, when President Biden has won all State primaries and caucuses, except the American Samoa territory.
In 1968, there were other candidates for president. In the current race, President Biden has been the overwhelming Democratic presidential candidate.
What does this mean now?
Historical Last-Minute Changes Before a Convention
The announcement frees almost 3,900 delegates – often party leaders and activists pledged to President Biden through the States’ primary process – to back another candidate. Unsurprisingly, Biden has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate for the Party.
As of this writing, she is the only declared Democratic candidate. But she is not yet the Democratic Party nominated candidate. That will wait until the Democratic Convention.
What does that mean?
Both little and much. According to Democratic Party rules, delegates for Biden were not “tied” to vote for him at the Convention. They could vote for whomever they wished, come convention time. So, with President Biden dropping out of the race with no other serious candidate up to this point, his endorsement of Vice President Harris does not guarantee her victory at the Convention yet.
What’s the “much” part?
Democratic War Chest
President Biden’s announcement on Twitter, 12:13 PM, July 21, 2024. Image: X/Twitter
Suppose Vice President Harris wins the majority of the Democratic Party’s almost 4,700 total delegate votes. In that case, she can immediately inherit nearly a quarter of a billion dollars raised by the joint Biden-Harris campaign – across the Democratic National Committee, allied committees, and President Biden’s campaign committee itself. There are a few caveats:
Donors could request refunds on their contributions to the Biden campaign. Refunds are not given without request. Donors could endeavor to sue, but it’s unlikely they’d prevail. Donors gave to the joint Biden-Harris campaign.
If another Democrat successfully challenges Vice President Harris’ candidacy, there would be restrictions on accessing those donations. Should another candidate prevail at the Democratic Convention, the Biden-Harris funds could be transferred to Democratic committees backing House and Senate candidates or punted even further down the electoral timeline to “support Democrats in future years.”
Vice President Harris says she plans to “earn and win” the nomination. In the 72 hours following President Biden’s announcement on X/Twitter, she has raised $150M among Democratic donors.
After President Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, online donations to Democrats have jumped, with political action committee ActBlue reporting increased donations.
Image: Chartr
Next Steps
The Democratic candidate for president can be decided in one of two ways.
One way is through reviving the pre-1968 “open convention process,” where the delegates will select the candidate when the Democratic National Convention begins Aug. 19. This will mark the first time in over 50 years that a major party nominee was chosen outside of the democratic process of primaries and caucuses. It’s worth noting that the tradition of picking a nominee through primaries and caucuses – and not through what is called the “convention system” – is relatively recent.
As I mentioned in my article on Super Tuesday, in 1968, after President Lyndon B. Johnson announced he would not run for reelection, his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, secured the Democratic nomination despite not having entered any primaries or caucuses. (Spoiler alert: Humphrey lost the election to Republican candidate Richard Nixon.)
Alternatively, candidate selection will happen in a virtual roll call vote planned for early August, no later than August 7, perhaps as much as 12 days ahead of the Democratic Convention. This was the original plan for President Biden, which was made back in May.
The rules of the virtual roll call that her Party is planning require that Vice President Harris and any other potential Democrat willing to challenge her submit 300 electronic signatures from convention delegates, not more than 50 of whom can be from the same state.
So it’s just that easy?
Not quite. That date is important because it was the original deadline to qualify for the presidential ballot in Ohio. Lawmakers there have since changed that, but the modification doesn’t take effect until Sept. 1 — and Democratic National Committee attorneys have warned that waiting until after the initial deadline to determine a nominee could prompt legal challenges.
Vice President Harris’ immediate challenge is solidifying support across almost 4,000 delegates from the states, territories, and District of Columbia. In addition, there are more than 700 so-called “superdelegates” who include party leaders, certain elected officials, and former presidents and vice presidents.
Increasingly more leading Democrats have endorsed Vice President Harris’ candidacy.
Bill Petro, your friendly neighborhood historian
billpetro.com
